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Poland Business-As-Usual

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The Business-As-Usual scenarios are based on developments that are lined out in 'EU Energy, Transport and GHG Emissions Trends to 2050' (European Commission, 2013), for all European Member States and the EU-27. The scenarios were modelled with the PRIMES Model and take into account the impact of existing policies, the latest economic outlooks and demographic developments. Because not all input data of the scenarios were available, assumptions had to be made to translate them to scenarios in the Energy Transition Model, e.g. on the used heating technologies in the different sectors. Because the Energy Transition Model is based on IEA statistics and PRIMES not, absolute numbers might differ. The annual demand changes (in %) per sector are aligned within 0.1%-point. The annual growth rates per fuel differ in some cases (up to 1%-point) because the way the energy sector is modelled in the Energy Transition Model is different from the way it is done in PRIMES.

The High Energy Productivity Growth scenarios assume the same economic and demographic developments; this means that the same demand for heat, light, appliance output, services and products is met. The only difference is that the demand is met with more efficient technologies.

This scenario has been developed as part of THE 2015 ENERGY PRODUCTIVITY AND ECONOMIC PROSPERITY INDEX report. The report can be downloaded here and the infographic here.

  • Country: Poland
  • End Year: 2030

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